Both the book and the paper are available from Charles Wells' homepage:
http://www.tac.mta.ca/tac/reprints/articles/22/tr22.pdf
I bought the first edition of CTCS and I still don't know what a sketch is and why they seem to have gone out of fashio…
There are some great guns sharing your opinion, Dara. +Charles Wells of Category theory for computater science and Toposes, triples and theores recently posted on G+ that he's learning Coq and Agda for HoTT.
This seems like a relevant reference in Jan's paper:
] N. Cahill, A. C. Parnell, A. C. Kemp, B. P. Horton, “Modeling sea-level change using errors-in-variables
integrated Gaussian processes”, 24th December 2013,
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.6761.pdf
…
http://azimuth.ch.mm.st gives:
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Dave,
Thanks for the heads up.
I sent an update email to a bunch of Azimuthers (and I thought that included you as you're in my address book, sorry if you didn't get it) to say I'd ditched my Bluehost server and haven't reparked my domain name and…
David Tweed wrote:
the fact (that) pca seems virtually as good as other techniques is interesting.
Being able to detect signals using linear models is a seemingly signficant finding I took from the thesis.
Julian Sligo and Tim Palmer wrote in…
If you've been offline for a bit perhaps this goes some way:
Ian Ross, Nonlinear dimensional reduction methods in climate data analysis (2008) which compares the top 3 EOF PCA results against +20 dynamic models for El Nino 3 prediction.
Glad you'r…
That's very useful info Dara, I didn't know any of it. It's great that there's an industry standard lib. What language did you write your SVR code in?
FWIW I've been trying to learn to use some of the burgeoning plethora of Haskell parallel librar…
Dara,
I thought the Hessian-free LLE and FFT optimisations might be useful. Ian Ross has a good description on LLE and El Nino in his thesis (arXic:0901.0537v1.pdf).
Not unusually I forgot the machine learning package I wanted to mention used by t…
If it's of any help I remember reading a paper by Yann LeCun demonstrating better performance of deep (ie. more than one hidden layer) convolutional networks than state vector machines for some problems.
Maybe somewhere here:
http://arxiv.org/find…
In comment #21 [[John Baez]] wrote:
The angle brackets are defined as a running average over the 365 days, so this quantity involves data going back twice as long: 730 days. Furthermore, the ’link strength’ involves the above expression where τ\…
I think Ian's thesis (only read it once and have a terrible short-term memory) concluded something like that the first 10 EOF's, selected because they explain +70% of the variance in SSTs, do not require nonlinearity. Somebody will shoot me if I'm w…
I shouldn't have left it ambiguous. I'd appreciate any comments on Berliner's approach. I think Ian has done a lot of grunt work running many methods against many models in his thesis so I'm using that as a baseline evaluation of the field. I thin…
Hi Jan,
Ian Ross sent me Berliner et al on hierarchical Bayesian EOF analysis of El Ninos
http://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=9833&context=infopapers
I'm trying to write a summary of Ian's thesis if you've got the mileage to comm…
I'm just skimming your operadic phylogenetic paper. The diagram on p5. preceeded by:
the two internal edges of the given binary tree
should have (0,0) not (0,1) as bottom left label.
hth.
I posted this to the discussion on El Nino blog post 6.
Ludescher et al 2014 now claims their method works 1 year in advance. Can somebody get this paper?
I don’t think I’ve seen:
Ludescher, J., Gozolchiani, A., Bogachev, M. I., Bunde, A., Havlin…
Please point me to actual atmospheric forecasts that are anything but guessing where the curve goes next, so I have an idea of prior art.
Sorry I can't help; perhaps somebody else can.
Best wishes
No problem. Just a matter of perceived style.
I agree, I'd expect any forecasting algorithm to be backtested. I don't know how Steve's concerns about sensitivity to parameter settings and different methods could be answered.
It's some time since I read it, so I'll have to re-read the paper.
PS. enclosing stars (as with the source of) highlighted term does highlighting without the capitals.
I don't think I've seen:
Ludescher, J., Gozolchiani, A., Bogachev, M. I., Bunde, A., Havlin, S., and Schellnhuber, H. J. (2014). Very Early Warning of Next El Niño, PNAS 111, 2064 (doi/10.1073/pnas.1323058111)
http://www.pnas.org/content/111/6/206…
After a bit of difficulty I found an online version of the paper Ian Ross sent me on long-lead prediction of SSTs via Baysian dynamic models. I've added it to the wiki references.
WebHubTel Do you have access to any of Jannette Fradsen's "sloshing …
I get the impression there might be a correlation between AGW denial and having studied in a geology department (timescales?). For it to be a product of the groupthink then working for oil companies and mining corporations would have to be modded ou…
In the graph in comment #22 of various simulated and statistical EN3.4 prediction there appear to be 4 statistical (analytic) projections of < 0.5C out of 17 in total. This makes me ask whether this is suggestive of over-fitting in the simulation…
I'm following this very clear explanation of cross-covariance, which I posted above at #27, as to why people use 1/(N-1) with d=1 and D = 2 with the normalisation factor suggested by John.